Did you ever imagine that heat could be more than just an uncomfortable nuisance? Brace yourselves; it’s more sinister than you think.
As the planet toasts, heat-related deaths are rising in the U.S., based on a revelatory new study examining federally reported data since 1999. If you thought surviving hot summers without complaining was an achievement, think again.
In a record-setting revelation, more Americans succumbed to heat in 2023 than in any of the past two decades. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, last year was also the hottest year globally, another grim milestone in the ongoing climate change saga. Coincidence? I think not.
Enter stage right: the American Medical Association journal JAMA. The study unveiled here discovered that 2,325 souls perished from heat in 2023. And guess what? That, my friends, is probably an undercount! Talk about underestimating Mother Nature.
“The current trajectory that we’re on, in terms of warming and the change in the climate, is starting to actually show up in increased deaths,” states Jeffrey Howard, the man of the hour and a maestro in public health at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Spoiler: it’s bad.
Howard along with his team from the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences and Pennsylvania State University dissected death certificate data spanning from 1999 to 2023. They kept a keen eye on deaths where heat was either an underlying or a contributing cause.
Here’s where it gets ‘hockey stick’ interesting. Reported deaths remained steady until about 2016, when they started increasing, akin to a hockey stick curve. If the world was a steamy show, temperatures would be the overwhelming fan favorite surging upwards, with heat deaths mirroring that ascent.
Fast forward to age-adjusted metrics, the number of heat-related deaths is skyrocketing, barring no age or population size limitations. It’s the same old sad story, just magnified.
Take a moment to digest this: In 2022, 1,722 people perished with an adjusted rate of 0.47. Fast forward to 2023, and we’re talking about 603 additional deaths, pushing that adjusted rate to a record-breaking 0.63. The highest. Ever.
Of course, the suffering wasn’t uniformly distributed. According to Howard, death loves the heat, particularly in places like Arizona, California, Nevada, and Texas. Those states were disproportionately represented in the death data. Climate change is showing no mercy.
Before you say, “But wait, what’s the real number?” there’s a caveat. Local jurisdictional quirks in reporting methods mean we probably have an undercount here. As more folks become aware of heat’s killing spree, it’s still tough keeping track of the casualties accurately. Vulnerable groups, like those without air conditioning or with pre-existing conditions, probably have it the worst.
Heat, dubbed the ‘silent killer,’ creeps up unnoticed, said Sameed Khatana, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. And if there’s one thing death hates, it’s paperwork. But fear not, state officials are getting warmer (no pun intended) to the idea of taking heat seriously when it comes to dotting their i’s and crossing their t’s on death certificates.
It’s time to sound the alarm on our reporting methods, which Khatana and other like-minded researchers have been championing for ages. Classifying heat in death certificates varies across counties, which is a problem in its own right. Ashley Ward, the go-to person at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment, and Sustainability, insists on standardized guidelines to determine if heat is a contributor.
But here’s the silver lining in the cumulonimbus cloud: Researchers are calling on officials to expand access to hydration stations and public cooling centers. It’s about time! Cooling centers are our new BFFs.
In 2024, the summer scorching hasn’t hit the snooze button. The death toll is still out there, pending further updates despite frequent heat waves. Phoenix, for example, is practically on fire with a record streak of over 100-degree scorchers.
Climate change doesn’t spare. In July, California and New Hampshire weren’t just about sun tans but setting records for the hottest July. It’s not just a mental metric; it’s literally heating the stakes.
Globally, three back-to-back days in late July broke the joyous record of being the hottest ever. NOAA’s betting odds stand at 77% for 2023 to be the warmest on record. If you’re still in denial, you might need an ice bucket to cool those thoughts.
“On the whole,” soberly remarks Howard, “it seems that things are getting worse and not better.” Ah, the double-edged sword of progress and its molten repercussions.
